Topics and Objectives
- Potential outcomes, average treatment effects, and randomized
trials
- Causal identification, propensity score weighting, and outcome
regression
- Doubly robust estimation, cross-fitting, and statistical
learning
- Unobserved confounding, instrumental variables, and weak
instruments
- Conditional average treatment effects and meta-learners
- Optimal decision rules, policy value, and outcome weighted
learning
- Variance reduction and continuous-treatment extensions
- Dynamic treatment regimes, backward induction, and policy
learning
Module Schedule
During this three-week module, we will cover the following potential
lecture materials as time permits. The first two weeks will focus mainly
on causal inference, conditional average treatment effects, and outcome
weighted learning. Homework 2 covers both Modules 2 and 3 and is due
November 5. The presentation schedule for this module will be announced
later.
The IV lecture is a separate identification route when unobserved
confounding is a concern. The CATE and outcome weighted learning
lectures then return to the conditional unconfoundedness assumption.
Homework
Presentation Session
General logistics and scoring are described on the Present and Challenge page.
Teams assigned to present in this module should select an applied
paper on causal inference from the list below. Each team may use up to
12 minutes for its presentation and up to 3-5 minutes for Q&A. The
specific time allocation may be shorter depending on the number of teams
presenting in the session.
For this module, focus on the reasoning behind the choice of causal
inference method. Numerical experiments are not required.
The basic requirements are:
- Introduce the scientific question and data, and explain why the data
collection and structure make causal inference challenging.
- Introduce the method and explain why it is appropriate for this
problem and data, compared with plausible alternatives.
- Assess whether the conclusions are convincing, and why, considering
the method’s assumptions and limitations in this setting.
Teams may also propose a paper of their own choice. The paper
should:
- Be an applied study, preferably published within the past ten years
in a leading journal, that uses causal inference to address a concrete
scientific question.
- Use a method or study design beyond a straightforward comparison of
randomized treatment groups, such as matching, propensity score methods,
difference-in-differences, synthetic control, regression discontinuity,
or instrumental variables.
- Provide enough detail about the data, method, and assumptions to
support a focused presentation and critical discussion within the
presentation time.
Here are some candidate papers:
- Miller, S., & Wherry, L. R. (2017). Health and Access to Care
during the First 2 Years of the ACA Medicaid Expansions. New England
Journal of Medicine, 376(10), 947-956. [link]
- Wallis, C. J. D., Ravi, B., Coburn, N., Nam, R. K., Detsky, A. S.,
& Satkunasivam, R. (2017). Comparison of postoperative outcomes
among patients treated by male and female surgeons: a population based
matched cohort study. BMJ, 359, j4366. [link]
- Diamond, R., McQuade, T., & Qian, F. (2019). The Effects of Rent
Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from
San Francisco. American Economic Review, 109(9), 3365-3394. [link]
- Allcott, H., Braghieri, L., Eichmeyer, S., & Gentzkow, M.
(2020). The Welfare Effects of Social Media. American Economic Review,
110(3), 629-676. [link]
- Ferraro, P. J., & Simorangkir, R. (2020). Conditional cash
transfers to alleviate poverty also reduced deforestation in Indonesia.
Science Advances, 6(24), eaaz1298. [link]
- Mitze, T., Kosfeld, R., Rode, J., & Wälde, K. (2020). Face masks
considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany. Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences, 117(51), 32293-32301. [link]
- Bonilla, S., Dee, T. S., & Penner, E. K. (2021). Ethnic studies
increases longer-run academic engagement and attainment. Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences, 118(37), e2026386118. [link]
- Dagan, N., Barda, N., Kepten, E., Miron, O., Perchik, S., Katz, M.
A., Hernán, M. A., Lipsitch, M., Reis, B., & Balicer, R. D. (2021).
BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting.
New England Journal of Medicine, 384(15), 1412-1423. [link]
- Goldin, J., Lurie, I. Z., & McCubbin, J. (2021). Health
Insurance and Mortality: Experimental Evidence from Taxpayer Outreach.
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 136(1), 1-49. [link]
- Braghieri, L., Levy, R., & Makarin, A. (2022). Social Media and
Mental Health. American Economic Review, 112(11), 3660-3693. [link]
- Wang, W., Volkow, N. D., Berger, N. A., Davis, P. B., Kaelber, D.
C., & Xu, R. (2024). Association of semaglutide with risk of
suicidal ideation in a real-world cohort. Nature Medicine, 30(1),
168-176. [link]
- Eyting, M., Xie, M., Michalik, F., Heß, S., Chung, S., &
Geldsetzer, P. (2025). A natural experiment on the effect of herpes
zoster vaccination on dementia. Nature, 641(8062), 438-446. [link]